CJ Stroud ended up the second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft behind Bryce Young. Setting the stage for a classic #1 versus #2 debate for years to come. Season one was dominated by Stroud and the Houston Texans. Now with further weaponry at his disposal, what can we expect for CJ Stroud’s dynasty outlook?
CJ Stroud Dynasty Outlook
The History
CJ Stroud was drafted by the Houston Texans with the second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Coming out of Ohio State, he was immediately met with skepticism due to the lack of success some Ohio State quarterbacks have had transitioning to the NFL. Ultimately, the general consensus was he could be a day one starter and the Texans took their shot to get their franchise quarterback.
Stroud armed with fellow 2023 Texans draft pick, wide receiver Tank Dell, plus newly signed tight end Dalton Schultz and returning wide receiver Nico Collins exploded onto the NFL scene. Stroud finished top-10 in passing yards, air yards, yards per attempt, and fantasy points per game. He was able to finish the QB7 with 18.7 points per game without providing much rushing ability that fantasy managers covet so much in their quarterbacks. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik built an offense around Stroud’s aggressive and willing nature to push the ball down the field. And it worked very well.
Stroud finished a top-12 quarterback in 7 out of 17 games. This isn’t exactly anything to write home about. However, Dell only came on consistently around week 9 before getting injured in week 13 and missing the rest of the season. Robert Woods failed to become much of a receiver he could lean on. Leaning on Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz is a lot less than most quarterbacks had to work with. And it showed, as in 4 games without Dell, he only finished in the top 12 one time averaging only 13.3 points per game across that stretch. Where could a healthy receiving group and year two under Slowik take CJ Stroud dynasty outlook?
The Situation
Not only will CJ Stroud get a healthy receiving group and year two with Bobby Slowik, butTexans management upped the ante. They went out and got Stefon Diggs to pair with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. They extended his 88 target tight end Dalton Schultz. Plus solidified the running back room by swapping, and upgrading, from Devin Singletary to Joe Mixon.
Stroud should continue to take a step forward after a huge rookie season. He threw for 4108 yards and 23 touchdowns plus three rushing touchdowns across 15 games. Plus had an exceptionally low 1% interception rate or five interceptions. He gets a clear upgrade of weaponry with Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs. Plus the continuity of Collins, Dell, and Schultz should only further help him improve and increase his fantasy output.
The situation is nearly as good as it gets for a sophomore quarterback. The Texans have pushed the chips in leveraging their franchise quarterback being on his rookie deal. This should make Stroud managers ecstatic. When looking through the full stats for Stroud he is really an average quarterback by accuracy and completion percentage standard. Except for a very good deep ball. The volume has been king for him with the No.8 passing yards, No.3 yards per attempt, and No.8 air yards among quarterbacks. The volume should sustain and keep Stroud a low-end QB1. The limited rushing upside keeps him closer to the Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert QB6 through QB8 range.
Current Price
Per KeepTradeCut, it seems I may be an outlier from the community as he is currently ranked the QB3. He sits behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. When you look at the last three seasons of the top five fantasy-producing quarterbacks in points per game, only one had less than 200 yards rushing. The goat, Tom Brady. CJ Stroud had 169 rushing yards last season or 11.1 per game.
Stroud is at his peak. He is easily worth 3x first-round rookie value. And the names around him are worth the same and would be near impossible to trade for without selling the farm.
CJ Stroud Dynasty Outlook
CJ Stroud looks to be at his peak. During the post-draft process last season, he was sitting around QB11/12 value. The Houston Texans did what they needed to insulate him. He is coming off a huge rookie season on a team with a lot of confidence and a great roster build. What do you do with CJ Stroud’s dynasty outlook?
Rebuilding
Stroud is the type of quarterback you build around. You could sell him, but then you just aren’t doing your rebuild justice to ship off a quarterback for assets to keep rebuilding. Take some of those assets and start to build out from Stroud now. Grab those wide receivers or running backs. Turn some existing assets into proven, young commodities through trade. This is pretty simple for a rebuilding roster.
Middle of the Pack
If you are in the middle of the pack, you likely are just a couple pieces away from turning the corner to a contender. Time to revisit your roster and decide what you can deal with to finish taking that corner. I feel Stroud will be a very tough sell at the current cost. Even if you are closer to rebuilding then contending, having a high-end, young starting quarterback is a very good start to retooling.
Contenders
If you are lucky enough to be a contender with CJ Stroud, then you only likely expanded your contending window. I have never been one to buy high, so if you don’t have Stroud the two-plus first-round picks it will cost to get him is likely too rich. If you have extra quarterbacks thanks to Stroud’s success, this is likely a great window to move one in super-flex leagues. You should be confident in moving forward with Stroud; whereas, if you have someone like Russell Wilson or Geno Smith. It may be a good time to move off them.
